GenusPlus Huge Upside!!

GenusPlus Group (GNP.AX)

Financial Position
MC ~ $172m
S/O ~ 154.7m
Cash ~ $34.18m
Debt ~ $6.84
Net Debt ~ - $27.34m
EV ~ $144.6m
EV/ LTM EBITDA ~ 6.9x
EV/ NTM EBITDA ~ 4.2x

Financial Overview
Revenues
FY17 ~ $48.8m
FY 18 ~ $51.2m
FY19 ~ $99.17m
FY20 ~ $169.9m
FY21 ~ $318.2m
CAGR 45%

EBITDA
FY17 ~ $7.59
FY18 ~ $7.93m
FY19 ~ $12.05m
FY20 ~ $16.97m
FY21 ~ $21.2m
CAGR 23%

EBITDA MARGINS %
FY17 ~ 15.5%
FY18 ~ 15.5%
FY19 ~ 12%
FY20 ~ 9.9%
FY21 ~ 6%
AVERAGE - 12%

EBIT
FY17 ~ $6.76m
FY18 ~ $9.08m
FY19 ~ $15.81m
FY20 ~ $10.69m
FY21 ~ $19.86m
CAGR 24.6%

NPAT
FY17 ~ $4.54m
FY18 ~ $4.80m
FY19 ~ $6.01m
FY20 ~ $10.69
FY21 ~ $13.35
CAGR 24%

FCF/SHARE
FY17 ~ $0.02c
FY18 ~ $0.03c
FY19 ~ $0.035c
FY20 ~ $0.05c
FY21 ~ $0.06c
CAGR 24.5%

Estimates:
FY22e
Rev's ~ $400m
EBITDA ~ $36m
NPAT ~ $24m
FCF ~ $18m
FCF/SHARE ~ $0.11c
FCF YIELD ~ 9.9%

FY23e
Rev's ~ $480m
EBITDA ~ $57m
NPAT ~ $29m
FCF ~ $22m
FCF/share ~ $0.14c
FCF yield ~ 12.6%

FY24e
Rev's ~~ $576
EBITDA ~ $34m
NPAT ~ $34m
FCF ~ $27m
FCF/share ~ $0.17c
FCF Yield ~ 15%

FY25e
Rev's ~ $691
EBITDA ~ $82m
NPAT ~ $41m
FCF ~ $32m
FCF/share ~ $0.20c
FCF Yield ~ 18%

Valuation 1: EBITDA method:
FY25 EBITDA ~ $82m
EBITDA multiple of 4x (conservative)
82 x 4 = $328 MC or $2.12/share
Estimated FY25 share price = $2.12
Current share price $1.11
Return = 17.5% p.a. IRR

Valuation 2 : FCF method:
FY25 FCF ~ $32m
Assume FCF Yield 5.5% (which is today's yield)
Estimated FY25 share price = $3.60
Today's share price = $1.11
Return = 34% p.a. IRR


As always DYOR!!