Hi WrongSideTrader,Some thoughts:1/ DLE is a technology that has...

Hi WrongSideTrader,

Some thoughts:

1/ DLE is a technology that has not proven it's value untills this day. Vulcan is not producing at scale yet. Vulcan left Australia for Germany and Italy because they could not find economical sources down under.

2/ A geothermal production unit has a very low operational cost, yet CapEx is high. They have to drill 2KM deep, renting a drilling rig costs up to $20.000/day and it'll take several days to drill all those wells. $800.000/ORC would be very cheap. And that's only the ORC-unit, not the test-drilling, drilling of production and reïnjection well,... Costs will be much much higher, I'd love to see some more info on IRR. I expect drilling alone to cost $10M; total cost of a plant to be around $20M. Yet this is still do-able as OpEx is low.

3/ I'd also like to see how much MW they need for Bitumen vs Projected MW from Geothermal Production.

4/ I'm looking for geothermal opportunities, but what kind off investor will put it's money at:
- Green Geothermal Energy (the climate activist type)
- AND Bitumen Production (essentially coal and solid oil, anyone has some info on the tailings?)

No green-strategy fund will be able to buy this stock as long as they persue both industries.

5/ Bitumen-project will need high amounts of energy, Binary Geothermal does not deliver this. It's carbon-offsetting on paper, not in reality. Such projects are political projects, not economical ones (guarantees on the short term, but will fail after some years).

6/ The expected temperatures range from 47 to 275 degrees. "Calculated" Numbers are from 2011. Ow god. That's some betting Acquifers not only need heat, but only a non-permeable layer on top to keep the the enthalpy high for eternal production. Where to find info about this? The maximum values are not production values, as soon as production begins, the source has an immediate cooldown (and then stabilizes at round 90%, gradually declining for years except if there is a magmatic source). They paid $10M for this info ?? Or did I get this wrong?

7/ Valuation:

+ Geothermal (Cannot work this out as long the MWe is not announced, I guess no MWt sideprojects will be initiated)
+ 20% of the Georgina Project (any guestimate?)
+ Bitumen (any guestimate? I think this team will be able to pull of because they have worked in another emerging market, being lithium).
- bad combination premium. (no green premium here because of the bitumen)
- investing into PFS/DFS-projects in times of rising rates.
= 75M AUD ?



If i'm right, please comment, if I'm wrong, please do the same.