I am sceptical that Roly's timeline FEL2 = stage 2 which is kick off of the demo plant. Reasons include, Alcoa is not going to rush through prod trials, design and FID by the end of Jan. Big companies never work that way. FID will take weeks. Imagine all the management layers it needs to go through, associated documents, rework and internal approvals.
I dig a bit of digging this morning to see what I could find on FEL definition. I couldnt find anything concrete, but I found a few references in official Alcoa job descriptions and the engineering & mining journal. It appears to me that they follow a project implementation framework that includes FEL 1, 2, 3 & execution / commissioning for every project(see below snapshot taken from a job advert). The journal article (old article titled - Best Practices in Refinery Front-End Design at Alcoa World Alumina) was especially interesting as it really highlights the methodical way they progress through projects to ensure success (which if you are a long term investor, is what I believe you should really want to see).
I think Roly has just done a poor job of trying to transition away from his timeline defintions to Alcoa and hasnt explained them very well. Perfect example is he states that design and engineering continues in 1HFY2022 (this has basically already completed!), it should be 2HFY2022, or maybe Alcoa have a different financial year to Aussie. But just more confusion. Happy to be proven wrong on the above, and I hope I am wrong.
It would be nice to get a clear timeline but even in spite of this post and the digging I did this morning, it doesnt really matter to me. I dont check the threads to often anymore and I must admit I am sometimes a bit slow to read the company anns that come out. I believe this is now a set and forget investment for the next few years. And continue to accumulate on the dips for me as we go. Alcoa are a beast who have taken this project over and will see it through to production. A green, profitable project in a sector that is going to boom over the next few years. Just look at the Alcoa articles that pop up on their website - all about sustainability, net zero carbon emissions. Look at this little snapshot from a recent article. FYI is in good hands. For all I care, Roly can put his feet up and let Alcoa do all the heavy lifting.
