regarding renewables & storage:
"I imagine he will immediately start to will ramp up renewables, later invest in energy storage, throughout this whole time let the 'dirty' plants become run down and then in 2030 sell them for a cheap but quick buck to payback the borrowings for renewable investment."
This really needs to be done the other way around... firstly, I am not an engineer and my knowledge of grid scale transmissions is limited to what I have learnt over the years as an investor... but we currently have enough scale in development and coming online (as a nation - particularly within the NEM) that IMO a big hurdle for enabling further investment in renewable projects is the curtailment and MLF factors that the AEMO apply to the generator. There are even suburbs where small sized household solar panel installs are not allowed to export generation at all (local transmission lines are already possibly getting too high a frequency during day with existing loads)
AFAIK storage if implemented on power lines that have frequent curtailment applied to generators or have high MLF factors, it should improve the metrics for generators ... so I would see it as being most important - batteries to soak up the excess watts that solar panels already produce (all at the same time) in addition to allowing the development of more wind - we all know (or should know) that wind comes second to solar for LCOE... but it also has that ability to generate over a 24 hour period - and if you geographically disperse assets between inverse locations - such as SA & QLD & offshore... the overall generation profile becomes much more consistent... but until much, much, much more storage is developed - I would be cautious of AGL looking to develop solar directly.
Also... commercial payback periods on grid scale BESS are ridiculous ATM... IFN (I was a holder - now privately owned by Iberdola) repaid their Lake Bonney BESS within years... not decades - albiet that one was a small size... Hornsdale has also had a similar favourable result - GNX is developing a 50w/100mwh BESS near Gladstone for a capex of 59m - their third part commissioned modelling has forecast revenue of 11-5m pa to 2030, margins >75% (due to arbitrage ability to time cheapest recharge and discharge at highest price & favorable FCAS income) & IRR 9-17% post tax. I am very confident they will get these numbers.
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regarding renewables & storage:"I imagine he will immediately...
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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Hank Holland, Chairman & CEO
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