Hi donedeal, I hope we all make lots of money from Sundance....

Hi donedeal, I hope we all make lots of money from Sundance. Whether folks who have held on and those who have bought recently (or both). We deserve it because Sundance is the owner of rare, highly prized long-life IO assets that is the subject of intense interest. Commercially, Mlabam-Nabeba is a gem in terms of profits/returns as per the LOWEST cost globally. Strategically it provided the asset winners long term supply security. For some, it also provides significant leverage in price negotiations (which probably would have a BIGGER financial benefit that the actual money made from the mining). Crucially for china it is not allowed to own and build the entire supply chain from mine-to-port anywhere else in the world. The Afferro deal and the Tonkolili deal (incidentally provides china very little in offtake) tells us China has lost hope elsewhere (ala Sinosteel Australian disasters, Gindalbie, Sino Midwest, stillborn Oakajee, stranded Brockman..) and now see Africa as her future as India has turned 60MTA exporter to china now becoming a competitor for IO assets in Africa.

Part of the reason why the sp is priced for no deal (despite a competitive landscape which didn't exist before - BTW a tender in this format is very effective in extracting maximum result - for it is a one shot in the locker for a winner-takes-all outcome) is that the "market" is taking advantage of the ingrained fear and scepticism among investors leveraging on the doubt and uncertainty because of the past lengthy delays with china introducing new conditions and postponing approvals, china's unscrupulous tactics in reneging on the SIA taking advantage of an engineered IO price volatility, insider trading scam and FIRB/ASIC stall, perception of funding problems, the last minute intrigue of missing tycoon and numerous twists and turns.

China's revised the original bid from 57c (itself a bid that reflected no competition and un-risked given there were no mining permit and conventions as well as prior to the massive 50% increase in resource definition) to 45c created the false perception that Mlabam-Nabeba is a dime a dozen and that no-one would want it other than China. IMO, this could be one factor in the undoing of the china-only bid in another chinese miscalculated (own goal).

I am dumbfounded at the fear that is typified by folks here on HC who still believe that the Hanlong deal failure was just that and that china now through SOEs have never left the scene (while holding onto every share bought from Talbot) is re-positioning themselves to take on multi-national competition is not being recognized.

A tender and term sheet sent to non-Chinese entities so soon after the Hanlong bid was made null and void CANNOT possibly have arisen because GC/GJ started doing their rounds of presentations this year.