With the SP currently suffering, certainly is easy to forget where we're headed.
Just thinking about the Townsville 15GwH factory alone - the FS should be completed by March which will then pave the way for NAIF funding. Private investment will probably also be need. Even if Magnis only ends up with 20% ownership and the take home is only $50/GwH, with a standard P/E ratio of 10... that's $150,000,000 in the bank p.a. and a SP of $2.15 (based on a diluted 700m register). Is feasible that construction will begin early 2020 and full production be achieved early 2022.
I would consider these conservative estimates... and are from just one factory.
There's also:
- NY in production next year (1)
- Nachu (read: cash cow) in full production within 2.5 years imo (JV site visits have already taken place as part of DD (2))
- Listrom, Germany in a much better position without having to compete with Terra E for government funding (German gov throwing 2.6B euros at consortiums and R&D shortly (3))
Not to mention:
- Additional gigafactory locations expected to be announced by the end of the calendar year (4)
The additional value to be added from the projects above makes $2.15 the starting point imo.
I'm happy to hold for the next couple years while the company's value materialises.
I know many who bought last week, including myself.
I feel for the sellers, imo they will be kicking themselves in a couple months, and especially a couple years from now
1. ASX MNS Announcement 2 Aug, 2018
2. ASX MNS Announcement 16 Aug, 2018
3. https://www.electrive.com/2018/09/10/germany-to-pour-billions-into-battery-cell-production/
4. ASX MNS Announcement 25 July, 2018
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