It’s so quiet on here today, I thought at first it must be the...

It’s so quiet on here today, I thought at first it must be the Queen’s birthday!

I was thinking about pedro05 accusing me of working for the company because of my positive comments. He (excuse the presumption) called me “the shining star in a bunch of negativity”.

I expect when the shares return to 60-70-80 cents and I write something saying ‘this is looking a bit overbought here’ I will be accused of working for a short-fund! Perhaps then Pedro, I will be the “pessimistic punter in a pool of positivity”?

(Try saying that five times fast…)

Pedro’s post alludes to a herd mentality. I always try to bet against the herd. The simple fact is, I want to buy stocks when they are oversold. Given the recent posts here, I’m going to call that the ‘moment of maximum moaning’. For instance, Orocobre at 2.75 and an RSI of 18? Yes, YES, YESSS!! Mama! Goaaaaaalllll!

I want to sell at the point of peak positivity. That’ll be when everybody here is jumping up and down saying, “it’s going to 2 bucks. Or 3! Or 4! Or 10! Hon, pass me that Holden brochure. Let's get a yacht!” The RSI will be 86, and I’ll be selling.

For this sort of behaviour, Blackham is a great stock. (That’s not the same as it being a great company). It is massively volatile. Look at a two year share price chart… there have been great opportunities to make money.

I owned it March–July 2016, making ~100%, and Nov/Dec ’16 to Jan ’17, making 40%. Now I’m buying again. At 34c, I see my short-term risk as being 10c down and 50c up. I’ll take that trade.

Fundamentally, I like the company. I think it has a good growth story and a cheap underlying valuation that should support a long term upward share price. I hope they are successful in achieving 200,000 oz pa production, though only time will tell. Some on here are doubting they will get there, or are worrying about what it’s going to cost. For me, that’s missing the point. There are bound to be hiccups along the way…

...In fact, I’m counting on it!

Pedro, and others, if your strategy is basically buy high, whine later, you’re not gonna make a whole lot.

My advice is this:

rePudiate a Punt at the Point of Peak Positivity.
Instead, Mobilize your Money at the Moment of Maximum Moaning.

If you get your m’s and your p’s sorted out, you'll be alright.

I’ll check back in when something happens…

Ciao!