...hallo....
...agree with @
MaryJane55... more about what this setup could be worth to the right person vs. trying to scale it while listed: $2...$5...10...$15/share....? Who knows?
But I would like to hear other people's perspectives on how this consortium could potentially exit... because they are definitely not in for the long run....not based on their historical investment exit strategies... and this will drive the value of the outstanding ~8% ....so what is the M.O.?
....So who would be interested in the current GSW setup post these acquisitions and how much could it be worth to them now that the Australian dollar is at 1.45? Say we value it at $7.5/share....that equates to US$1Billion...which equates to ~$27M deliveries/ day using say a Last Mile outsourced company
@10 cents/ delivery.... $4/share equates to ~15M deliveries/day ....and that is just one year cost's when outsourcing last mile delivery...
...some perspective:
https://searchaws.techtarget.com/feature/Amazon-bets-big-on-last-mile-delivery-service-improvements....if you want to say use a DCF valuation approach....~1.5M deliveries/day equates to ~$7.5/share assuming WACC of say 10% & 5% annual CAGR and annual OPEX of say $30M...
...so if they say buy the outstanding shareholders out at $7/share.....and flip it to someone with ~2.5m deliveries/day a day for $7.5/share.....everyone wins....including the acquirer.... can't see a below $4/share offer to be honest....I think they had enough exposure to Class actions & attention from ASIC for one lifetime....
....so the value to the acquirer will boil down to:
- what the cost would be to develop the platform yourself in-house (plus opportunity cost while doing it);
- vs. annual cost of say 10 cent/delivery using outsourced Last Mile Delivery providers;
- vs. purchasing an off the shelf platform + implementation cost etc.
- The real cost of status quo-not using last mile delivery software i.e cost of re-delivery, deliveries disappearing etc.
- Pay US$1 billion or $7/share (assuming >1.5M/deliveries/day)... now that Getswift potentially has tailored & onboarded it according to specs already.
Maybe someone could enlighten us what the costs could be to develop in-house something for say USPS and how long it would typically take... USPS, Fedex, UPS could all benefit from in-house last mile delivery software:
https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/13/21020938/amazon-logistics-prime-air-fedex-ups-package-delivery-more-than-50-percent...anyway...all conjecture.... we shall have the answers soon....
