Hallo...
...probably boils down to the 'master-plan'.... based on facts...not conjecture.... only a few people know the facts...so difficult to comment....
...all I know....let's take the following article as an example:
https://www.copyright link/technology/is-this-the-last-mile-for-getswift-20171206-gzznsd...so say Getswift is still onboarding NA williams (who knows) and say crystallise ~$130M of revenues a year...and say their annual normalised costs going forward are say ~$30M/annum...that is ~$100M free cash a year.... which would equate to a ~$16/share value....or ~$2 Billion EV ... so what then....how will this consortium of investors exit?
That is why I think there is already a deal on the table based on the 'unconnected dots'....the only way to exit is to sell the whole integrated platform to the big client they are currently onboarding... my humble opinion of course....
....paying say $130M a year to outsource your last mile logistics is just silly.... that is why Amazon brought it in-house... payback is a no brainer....
...so say all stars align...and say NA Williams crystallise $130M year using GSW's integrated platform... analysts would probably concur that this would equate to my valuation of say $2B valuation... but before that... NA Williams would probably have the right of first refusal call option to acquire the integrated platform post successful onboarding for say a price of $1B.... which equates to a payback of ~8 years... any person with a little bit of financial acumen would probably agree that this makes more financial sense that outsourcing it... if you were NA Williams...
....that is why I don't think Getswift has a future as listed enterprise in the current form, especially with Top 20 shareholders already owning more than 90%... Also, to stay listed, you are going to need to scale it....and when doing so... your big clients are going to do their own calcs... realize that an in-house last mile logistics platform solution is far more accretive than outsourcing it....and eventually churn....
....that is why small clients (<10M/ annual deliveries) would probably continue to use an outsourced last mile logistics... not accretive to bring it in-house.... and Getswift is going to need a lot of small clients to make it worth shareholders patience....will take forever....for a $500M valuation they are going to need at least 365M deliveries a year at say 10 cent /delivery to ensure competitive advantage.....that is about 235 FruitBoxes (1.6M deliveries/ annum)
Anyway, that is how I would have structured the deal .... and the investor consortium (majority shareholders) would probably accept that offer, because that is the only viable exit: they are not in for the long run....not based on their historic track record...
...anyway... wonder whether some of the Getswift exec team on Hotcopper could enlighten us... we all know who you are ...Bane, Joel anyone?
...my two cents....
