@roofy... it is axiomatic that you still don't get it...it is SAAS...no difference between contracts & trials per se....same thing ... it boils down in the end to user uptake...& consequent cash conversion...
.... also, do you understand SAAS equity valuation 101? Different from mining, banking, retail etc... all assumption driven... perpetually once platform is ready....looking 99+ years forward.... one contract...2....20 contracts at this stage is noise.... all about future FCF... scalability post implementation & trials....over at least 10 years...not 1-2 years....
.... and no contract could really be valued... due to the uncertainty of user behavior... using the platform 20 times in month 1....60 times in month 2... 500 times month 4 and then never again....part of business risk.... all about potential...
....$100M FCF equates to $2 Billion valuation....assuming 4 BETA and WACC of say 10% and 5% CAGR... they used only one potential contract revenue in their valuation.... and got $4/share using EBITDA multiple approach which again was based on Tier 1 bench-marking...I personally don't agree with that approach due to the BETA risk element ... but their valuation was much lower than my $2Billion...due to my WACC & CAGR assumptions....
....but it boils down to uptake....& consequent cash conversion...so a lot of assumptions....heuristics.....no historical track record...hence deemed vulture capital....super high risk.... you can do due diligence till you are blue... all based on heuristics in the end....
...so bottom line...still:
- equity valuation is all assumption driven...about something that may...or may not happen in the future....
- Getswift's busness model was spelled out in plain English in the prospectus....
- All the announcements were as per prospectus... guesstimates where contract could be cancelled anytime and based on uptake....
- all numbers were based on 100- 110% potential uptake in the next 5 year...where 100% equates to 2017 stats.....and 10% growth based on historical CAGR;
- Amazon was still interested in Getswift until that AFR article...same with other pipeline clients.... as per Jan/Feb 2018 emails....
...my 2 cents...
