hy22, very difficult questionthe first part of the fall would...

hy22, very difficult question

the first part of the fall would have been some profit taking, you draw a line from 1/3/06 sitting on the peak of 17/10/07 and continuing on you will see $1.51 just got over this line, time for a natural retrace. then along came the cap raising at $1.20, this sucked the SP back a bit further and started creating a bit of negative momentum.

then the dreaded bots started attacking us, for a long period of time the goal of this bot was to slowly decrease the SP while also decreasing the liquidity, destroying confidence in all holders.

we then had a slight respite around the 75c mark, seemed like major resistance to move from there down to the ultimate support line of 38c target.

but along came lower gas prices, imagined issues with the collapse of Sonray,rumours surrounding JAL and other companies and the last general pull back of the market.

this finished off the initial slide to 38c.
upon hitting this first target we bounced quickly back to our resistance point of 65c.

this is were the manipulation began again, keep the price in a range until the most recent reserve upgrade was released, almost 100% increase which was immmediatley followed by the regulation fall after a reserve upgrade.

this destroyed confidence and we have fallen back to resistance of 38c again. this broke the back of a couple of well respected posters on this site and this was the main aim.

what this has created imho only, is a deeper steeper beginning of a double bottom pattern, this will only be confirmed if the SP gets back to 68c reasonably quickly but so far, this has followed the script perfectly.

i will be attempting to buy 1 more parcel early next week, as i truly believe the SP is about to rocket.

the price to book of RFE is currently 1.2, ridiculously low, our current SP is basically only factoring in our net assets, not even considering our reserves, cash flow and no debt.
the average for the market is 2.8, the average for the oil and gas sector is 2.9, this is where my basic evaluation comes in for RFE of 96c.

when trying to put a value on a company the last thing i want to calculate is how they will repay debt, this is not an issue with RFE and the latest announcement made it fairly clear that the following years drilling is now being covered by cash flow and existing cash reserves, hence still no debt while increasing production and reserves.
RFE has a lot of acres untouched, reserves will only increase, and to be honest, i would prefer to see our drilling at EOK this year to be extremely selective, maximum reserve upgrade potential sites drilled only, paid for by the modest increase in wells and production at West Tulsa.

looking for a big increase in the next week or 2, we have quarterly activity and cash flow reports plus the annual report to shareholders due shortly, this should provide the push along we need.

the reason i have mentioned the double bottom scenario is this is an extremely bullish pattern, when the SP gets back to 68c, this is the buy signal for a lot of investors, the SP shouldnt stop at 68c, i have a target in the low $1 by early next year.

this is not investment advice, only my opinion, DYOR etc etc.