getting a feel of whats happening., page-5

Personally my reasons for low sp is:

1. lack of definitive plan - are we being dolled up for sale or are we intent on getting the resource out and selling it.

2. Lack of progress towards break-even - We have just not got enough wells producing to ensure we dont run out of cash. It looks good but no certainty.

3. Expensive management and DP doesn't respond to most shareholders calling him. WB has had some success not not many more.

4. Disgruntled shareholders who have come from a long way up and each day is another disappointment so a constant stream of disillusioned shareholders each reaching his/her level and then selling.

5. Tightly held share so sellers in any volume push price down and buyer push the other way. No real free float for traders to want to get into this share.

6. Some degree of skepticism as good announcements seem to drive it down. So people feel that good news has no impact.

7. Personally I am a little wary of the valuation as we dont have enough history IMO to know the actual costs of getting the resource to market in volume and how the wells will act in rates of decline. So its not a producer generating income yet.

8. Most larger investors want to see some money being made and want it to have gone from explorer to transition to producer.I think transition is the most vulnerable as the price is high enough to scare off the 5c to 50c brigade but not yet able to value as a revenue stream for the conservative investor. What I am learning is that the longer this transition the worse the share behaves in this period. We are taking a long time to get to profitability and well development has been slower than I had expected.

9. I am beginning to think that there are many investors who ride the first wave and are very disciplined and then get off and look for the next opportunity. They dont hang around no matter how good it looks its cash into 6 to 18 months resource builds share starts running and at some fixed point they get off. They probably have a higher risk reward return and take a bath on many but a few hit it big. We the longer term guys get in and hold and then it takes too long and we or some of us get off. Then it becomes a producer and it runs again producing money so valuation is easier. Look at some of the most favoured HC posters and just follow their posts for about 6 months and you will see them move on quite quickly. Often they still hold a smaller balance free carried but they dont post nearly as often and they are posting on other shares.

I have sold 50% of my holding in this as it has taken too long for me and another of my investments has been running. Long term I think this will be okay but it is in spite of management not because of them IMO.