re: url ceiling price Hello,My name is The Uncle. I am new to...

re: url ceiling price Hello,

My name is The Uncle. I am new to Hotcopper and I would just like to say a big hello to everybody. I like to look at most things from a fundamental perspective.

It was asked what the ceiling price of URL might be. There are two ways in my opinion to approach this:

1) A straight NPV of their potential 50,000 tonne p.a. copper mine development - final feasibility due in about 5 weeks. At a $2.25/pound copper price, accounting for full dilution effect of capital raising, I would recommend a share price of $0.80 - $1.00/share. This excludes any value for their multiple other prospects, including the things they're doing with Xstrata. It also excludes the possibility that Xstrata might exercise its option to purchase around half of the mine at valuation.

2) Comparative Analysis - similar size mine as Oxiana but in first world country instead of third world. Should have similar opportunity profile as Oxiana did as things progress. Should be able to raise higher levels of debt finance (i.e. than PNA as well) due to comparatively low sovereign risk 3 - 4 year prospective share price = $2 - $3/share.

I personally hold a shareholding in URL and currently view it as a mispriced security. I topped up the day before when the share price was $0.13 - bargain of the century in my opinion. I am looking at this investment from a 3 - 4 year propective - hopefully then URL will be generating hundreds of millions in cash flow from its mine and the current market cap of $35m will seem a distant memory.

Regards, Uncle.