acturtle, you definitely made the right choice - at least for now. AVV I believe needed to prove itself for a number of reporting periods and only did so for 2. Perhaps coming from the old ISIS Communications (dot com dog stock) does not lend a lot of sympathy to it when it disappoints? It will be interesting to watch how close they come to their revised October numbers when they release their annual report in the new year. The way the stock is performing in price I don't think the market is displaying confidence. Might be worth another look if they surprise on the upside though?
In contrast MPH has been performing great for over 2 years now and getting stronger recently -
eps has grown at rates of 103%, 113%, 20% and 76% (most recent) over corresponding periods for the past 4 periods. Given that the number of shares outstanding for this calculation has doubled over the past year then that is quite impressive.
Revenues have been growing and accelerating also since around 1998.
Operating margins have come from around 8% to 25% over the past 2 years - helping explain the rise in profits and return on assets has improved 300% in the same period from around 4% to 16%. Cash flows great and debt situation good too.
I think the deal they did with BKR was good for them and will be interesting to see the impact on future earnings.
There are 3 analysts from Foresight Capital, Wilson securities and Tolhurst that all have strong buy recommendations on it with an average estimate of eps growth of 80% for 2005 and then 26% for 2006.
I did some rough calculations based on these numbers -
Currently 80 cents with a pe of 26 in a sector of pe of 22. If we then take 80% estimate of eps growth and trading on a pe of just 20 next year then I get a price of $1.08, if trades at current pe then I get $1.40.
Same logic applied for 26% growth in 2006 gives a prices of $1.36 and $1.77.
Nothing guaranteed of course in business !!!! But well worth a look.
AVV
aav limited
