getting closer...

Once again PCL comes up short, however, we are all getting closer!

Clearly the aerial closure is much is close to what was first anticipated. A 700m vertical relief was leading to estimates of 800 million barrels of energy in place.

For the discovery to be commercial, with the current gross pay, the aerial closure would need to change. PCL have implied that the aerial closure has not been revised (note page 1, "... due to its estimated size,...").

On that basis a quick calculation of 800 million barrels over a 700m column is 1.14 million barrels per meter. Therefore, over 43.6m the barrels equivalent will be approximately 50 million barrels. Converting 50 million to gas requires a conversion factor of 6,000mcf = 1 boe, so that's 300 Bcf. The likelihood is that the discovery will be even smaller as the closure at the top of the Miocene will be smaller due to the anticline play.

If BG provide confirmation of a second well this year, we will see a capital raising, equity sale or farm down.

Personally, I would like to see the flog 10 to 20% of Namibia to raise funds for the second BG well.

A commercial discovery feels close, however, it is likely to just be wishful thinking.