I tend to agree with your argument that gold will fall from here just like all the other commodities, however at this stage IMO its too much of a 50/50 call and it could just as easily break up and run fast to new highs.
BH!s chart and comments are IMO spot on.
There is no break out yet and the RSI and MACD are still rising. You could make a case for a break down from here based on price going down and sideways while the indicators burn off their oversold conditions OR you could argue that its setting up for a winkinatcha (TM ;)) whooska! breakout north.
Certainly some money to be made though if you wait until it breaks decisively one way or the other.
