New grade is to be around 59%FE not the $59.6FE of the last QTR or the 59.9% as was originally planned when SI was to be part of the mix.
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So we are told the recovery %will improve 2% to 88% price recovery of the 62% platts and WILL RISE on a nearly 1% lower grade from that actually recieved last QTR for higher grade material says the presentation----"hopefully I say".
The $14US for shipping was taken from last QTRs actual costs not the $13AU future predictions. i.e $10US.
The difference is simply projections and ACTUALS from last QTR.
The only sure thing is the ACTUAL current and likely future 62% FE price is currently nearly $10 lower than the $72 consensus platts in the presentation and as I indicated highly unlikely to climb for a few years.
SI production will be with ARI probably until 31st March to some degree,so will the cash flowing out the door at current prices and my $215m or so guess equates to around $22-23/ton on 9mt,the socalled margin.
I hate coincidences when it comes to figures.
There is a different climate for IO and no desperation to HAVE STOCKS with such prolific producers ramping up still.
DYOR + DYODD Actuals or presentations - give me actuals everytime.
ARI Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
