RN,
D party appears to hold the cards.
They can form a coalition with IA as long as IA don't block development or they can form one with S/A without any loss of face if IA are too dogmatic. Further, RP previously referred to a report where IA had suggested prior to the election they would be open-minded on the issue.
Your fear that D will have to side with IA and do a backflip by banning U mining as a bi-product just to get a seat at the table appears the least likely scenario to me.
ggg poll result, page-75
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