Even if Relenza did take market share I fear BTA's royalties might disappoint you (correct me if I am wrong but I guess you are expecting royalties of $30m+).
The calculations below demonstrate that Relenza will only achieve royalties of $30m+ if Relenza's market share is >46%. This might be possible (and might even be probable) but it definitely isn't certain. History suggests that it would be a terrific result if Relenza achieved 40% market share, which would result in a royalty of something like $24m.
The figures below illustrate my calculation of Relenza royalties based on various assumed levels of Tamiflu and Relenza market share (calculation = Tamiflu sales/(1-Relenza market share) = market size; market size x Relenza market share x $22 x 7% = BTA royatly; all the calculations are FX adjusted): 1) Relenza market share = 60% - Relenza royalties for BTA = $53m 2) Relenza market share = 46% - Relenza royalties for BTA = $30m 2) Relenza market share = 50% - Relenza royalties for BTA = $35m 3) Relenza market share = 40% - Relenza royalties for BTA = $23.5m 4) Relenza market share = 30% - Relenza royalties for BTA = $15m
BTA Price at posting:
$2.26 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
