Tightening 2PPThat's what's leading people astray. The 2PP...

Tightening 2PP

That's what's leading people astray. The 2PP preference is not a poll question, AFAIK. It is an extrapolation of the primary vote with historical voting pattern applied, but these are not normal times.

The electorate is clearly and deeply polarised, the greens are becoming irrelevant outside Tas and ACT. In "normal" times the swinging voter will put an "other" first and their true preference next. They won't take that option this time, they will vote (1) one of the major parties and only "other" if they feel strongly, and that won't be many.

So primary vote is all that counts and a 5% swing will be devastating. I reckon it will be much larger than that.

All this about leaders is meaningless rubbish. We vote for a local member only. They are, and always have been, temporary, as proven by the assassination of Rudd.