Hi Frank,I agree there are a lot of mixed messages surrounding...

Hi Frank,

I agree there are a lot of mixed messages surrounding the whole global situation and the medium term future for all, let alone IO producers.

Steelmakers are united globally though, in that production and inventories have had to be reduced dramatically.

It is very clear the demand for IO has fallen off a cliff. Buyers are dealing on the spot market now rather than signing long term contracts and the spot market prices are at an all time low RIGHT NOW. They are even lower than the rock bottom they hit late last year.

That is bad news for IO producers in anyone's language and clearly shows steel producers expect IO pricing to remain under pressure for the medium term.

China will do extremely well out of this crisis as you say but there is no factual evidence to support any suggestion that they "initially" artificially manufactured an export crisis in China and curbed production in order to buy OS resources or negotiate better commoditity pricing.
But now the situation is upon them, they will of course use it to their advantage. As you said, it's their turn.

As far as those conflicting comments though from Ansteel the fact that GBG and Ansteel have virtually postponed production for 12 months unambiguously says to me that they are clearly NOT in the same hurry they were just a short time ago.

A lot of the noisier posters have totally confused the EPA process with the EPA decision and have lumped them together as one and the same. The process is long and tedious and GBG only finalised it in January. GBG knew the process. The final decision is now awaited and will take 4-5 months from then to be handed down from the WA Gov't but in the meantime, GBG and Ansteel have postponed production by 12 months. There is one solitude reason that clearly stands out against the other factors that went into them deciding to delay production.