Chances of no oil should be "low" - I can't quantify what "low"...

Chances of no oil should be "low" - I can't quantify what "low" is though...

If you look at the 5th May update that KIK put out you can see the fringe of oil and gas fields around the Malampaya Graben on one of the slides - seems to suggest that oil should be there. Oil shows at Coron-1 in the NLF say that oil made it to there from (presumably) the Malampaya Graben where it was generated - so must have gone past the G-1 location.

So, to me it looks good - but having said that I'm not a geologist, just a humble driller.

How confident... I have (what I consider) a very large exposure, 4m NDO and 1m KIKO. I'd be full of it if I said I was not a little worried about a negative result here - but I believe that the odds are reasonable.

If there is nothing there I fully expect to do $160k on NDO (drop 4c per share) and all $20k on KIKO - which would be a major dissapointment. The upside however is quite substantial and in my mind is worth the risk.

p1000