ap - found an old Austock OGC 2008 report...

ap - found an old Austock OGC 2008 report here

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CDIQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.schroeder-equities.com%2FConference_files%2FOGC%252006_03_2008%2520-%2520post%2520CY%252707%2520result.pdf&rct=j&q=oceanagold%20npv%20filetype%3Apdf&ei=_3wTTonlDMWAmQXJiPHyCA&usg=AFQjCNGxjziNg0p8k5FiWT4QkJ1RUl5pQg&sig2=TQU3ieeNB-C6S87G6pozgw&cad=rja

if the link doesn't work just google: oceana gold npv with file format: pdf

"I can see how you could work backwards tweaking the discount rate until you arrive at the figure the analysts get or even to match today's SP. but how realistic is it?"

not really working backwards for each stock, it's what fits best for all stocks. anything from 8-15% I think is going to get you in the ballpark (10yr rate + plus some extra risk). Also most feasibility study work on around a 10% rate, most analysts around 10%. the number is very realistic

"For example using this discount rate of 12.5% to calculate today's SP, WOW!! today's SP at $2.45 is a real steal EVEN WITHOUT the Philippine project!! That is: NPV of ONLY NZ Project using r = 12.5%(calculated above) = $870m then, Dilution: 870m/262.55m shares = $3.31/share! A real bargain!"

you haven't included the debt they have
NZ NPV = $870m = value of NZ operations
value = debt + equity
$870 = $205 + equity
equity = $602/262.55m = 2.30 per share

(don't take away the cash balance to work out enterprise value [most people do] a mining company is only going to spend it anyway)

lastly - you might find this useful
http://www.amazon.com/Mining-Valuation-Handbook-Investors-Management/dp/0731409833/ref=dp_ob_title_bk

good luck

oh, and OGC is going to 500