I must say from the start that OGC has had an impressive run and...

I must say from the start that OGC has had an impressive run and certainly long term i believe the SP could rise to as much the "experts" say in the recent announcement about post 2013. I did wanna buy 'em and so i did a few calculations.

BUT looking at their situation now i dont see how, fundamentally at least, the share price will improve short-term. Maybe someone can enlighten me?

My reasoning is this.
Current Market Cap/ Book = $629M/$442M = 1.43

They will spend $180M in 18mths to build the Philippine mine to be complete by Q4(December)2013. Lets say that expenditure is $180M/18mths =10M/mth.(Note: The Quarters are 6mths out because their reports are in $US i suppose)

They have existing production of 280Koz of Gold in NZ for their latest qtr(Qtr1 till March2011). This is great and there sales were $90.7M. But after costs, taxes and all other expenses, they only retain $14.7M. This is 16.2% retention with which they can build the company and of course Shareholders equity. Similarly in period ended Sept30 2010, Sales = 83M, Net Earnings=13.6, therefore 16.4% retention. So lets say then they retain: $14.7M/3mths= $4.9M/mth from now on while building the Philippine Mine.

Simply put, they are making $4.9/mth and spending $10M/mth. I wonder how the price can go fundamentally north in this situation? Of course they are spending wisely on a new mine but at least for the short term, investors of OGC may have to be patient and understanding i believe when looking at Qtrly reports for the next 18mths. If i had stocks i think i'ld be selling to buy cheaper later.

I'ld be very happy to hear opinions and "nice" but nevertheless contrary criticisms to my small analysis above. Thanks and best regards.