arpeggio1) why 12.5%... just fits, and it seems logical, 10yr...

arpeggio

1) why 12.5%... just fits, and it seems logical, 10yr rate plus some more. I have seen so many different discount rates from different analysts (or "project risk weightings" which are a load rubbish) or different WACC rates, but if you can see most of your models fit with x% use that. It will change over time (GFC!) but it won't change much.

2) I just updated NPV result for most recent quarter (so, raised costs per tonne a little, and lower grades) and it changes to around $870m, here's the model...


3) and yes, it's net (or operating cashflow) not revenue

you'll note I have not included:
- capital investment (so no IRR)
- depreciation
- tax
- inflation

all important, sure, but as a simple punter I don't think need the detail (unless it very large) and most of it is constant across companies or cancels out by the end of the project.

just take away capex not yet raised from the NPV, because the company needs to either raise it with debt or equity

so, as an update, my guess on OGC medium term share price =
NZ NPV ($870m) + Phil NPV ($665m) = $1,535m
debt = $205 (aud)
equity = $1,535 - $205 = $1,330
divided by 262.55m shares = $5.05 - $5.10 sp