re: still looks expensive given risk Hi Stevecam,A few points of...

re: still looks expensive given risk Hi Stevecam,
A few points of clarification re my last post.

During the run-up to 50c, German punters collectively purchased something like 20% of the company. They have been selling ever since, and I haven't bothered to keep track of the % of the company that is still in German hands (since I sold the day after the negative CVT announcemnt), but I suspect it is still substantial, and I suspect they will unload completely in the near future.

Once tax loss selling kicks in, I see the stock settling at around 7c. If the silicon biosensor tests are successful, I see ABI going to the market in around 7 months with a capital raising priced at around 5c per share. This sounds absurdly cheap, but it is the only way the company will be able to attract capital from profressional investors given the enormous risk. If the silicon biosensor tests are not unambiguously successful, I see the company folding overnight (with ABI's residual IP being sold to Dow/Genencor for a song). Indeed, even if the silicion biosensor tests are successful, it is quite possible that ABI will still be unable to attract further funding because the new commericialisation time line is too far into the future and because ABI has such a bad reputation.

Regarding the plastic cartridge, ABI scientists will tell you that they were confident of *eventually* attaining commercial levels of sensitivity. However, even if (and it is a big IF) commercial levels of sensitivity could have been acheived, the plastic cartridge could never have been released commercially because 1) the design of the cartridge was such that scale up was virtually impossible (i.e, not economically viable), and 2) with the silicon biosensor emerging on the distant horizon, the necessity of refrigeration storage of the cartridge suddenly became a major negative and it was felt that no hospital would be interested in buying sensidx (even if the thing worked).