Given this thread was the big opportunity for holders to prove why QFX is a buy, seems the only positive they can come up with is paying customers increase and all hope is now pinned on a deal with another company which Langsford has talked about before but so far failed to deliver.
"Most advanced streaming/dvd company in Australia. Others are playing catch up."
But not the most advanced or best streaming company available in Aus which is Netflix,Hulu,Vudu etc... Leagues ahead of QFX. Post DVD is a dinosaur business which QFX has never been able to make profitable in the past, let alone in the future as DVD use declines.
"Over 120k paying customers."
Which is strongly offset by declining revenue,declining customer average revenue and customer churn. Plus the 120k number is completely ambiguous, actual number of subscribers is likely to be far less. Also it equates to less than 1% of Australian Households. When "Paying Customers" is up and actual net result is a decrease in revenue, you can see how skewed that reporting is.
"The entire sector is hotting up."
And so far leaving QFX behind while QFX posted a second highlest loss of 10m last FY and diluted investors with another 1b shares issued.
"9 owns i believe something like 8%?"
Which equates to 10m on QFX Liabilities, while paying 4% interest.
"Plenty of rumored interest for deals/takeovers etc even if you think it can't make it on it's own."
All just speculation, so far QFX has failed to make any deals, Aus or NZ. While other companies are making deals between themselves leaving QFX behind.
"Deals with dicksmith/eagle boys etc."
Which largely contributed to a 90% increase in marketing costs to 3.2m, net result fall in actual revenue by 6% and net loss blow out to 10m. By the way looking at LinkedIn last night, that failure looks to of cost some management jobs.
"Current deal with Hbo."
Who sold out to Nine, and will likely result in QFX losing HBO deal soon as current content agreement expires.
"It's a spec buy hence why it has potential, I'm sure the others can chime in with plenty but thats off the top of my head"
It's far below even spec buy levels, it's techincally insolvent with a long history of loses and very high cash burn rate.
"Reason to buy?
Seven, Nine, Ten, Fairfax and TPG.
I reccon some or all of these will cut a deal with QFX before Christmas."
From the poster who last year said this stock would be 10c by last xmas. Nothing but speculation, all hope for investors now seems pinned on a deal or take over. Reason enough to sell as if the last FY results werent bad enough.
"So it is investing in the potential of QFX and not in its financials given that there are hundreds if not thousands of companies that burn more cash than they make, until they make it."
But those companies usually have something else of strong value going for them, like large customer base and strong organic growth. Or about to complete major O&G or Mining project etc etc.
"Didnt Austar almost go under a few times before getting taken over."
QFX and Austar are leagues apart, Austar (from memory) had a customer base of actual subscribers of almost 1m and a large percentage of Australian Households. QFX has likely less than 100,000 actual subscribers and only 120,000 paying customers. Which equates today to a market share of Australian households of well under 1%
"Shakes is just open minded about the huge potential."
Huge potential where all hope is now pinned on a deal with another company or take over at some ridiculously higher SP level, I think even the most "opened minded" rampers can now see QFX have no way of actually being able to trade out of the mess they are in on their own with or without increasing competition,
Ironically I'm sure the competition can read the QFX balance sheet and outlook as well, while standing back waiting for them to collapse.
"Thats why if qfx does do well he will profit and the downrampers won't.""
Unlike QFX FY13 and FY14 have been two of my most profitable years trading/investing in last 25 years thanks to the new NASDAQ bubble and CFD's while QFX investors today will be holding a paper loss pinning all hope that another company will come along to save their investment before it goes from the bottom drawer to the trash bin.
Not only have they held a under-performing stock during one of the biggest bull rallies in decades, but capital is tied up which could of been used somewhere else. Ironically on stocks like NFLX 400% rise.
Joel, there is absolutely no loss if you miss out in a trade, there is always plenty of others. But being wrong – not taking the loss earlier when you know you should have – that is what does the real damage.
Kat.
