Yes that's a little off the mark Rich.
They knew pretty much what Icewine held at the Bluff pad by the beginning of the second calendar Qtr 2016 if memory serves.
Now they (NOR) may have been thinking about the Ice 2V well design which was anncd in Sept 2016 which WAS prior to the pick up of the extended acreage.
As Dave says (and no Im not Dave, altho humbled that U might think I am) in the UK preso, up to the initial production flow test of this well, the exploration component must be done in a logical sequence to make sure that investor funds are not being squandered on needless exploration activity/analysis by logically derisking the HRZ play.
Its also important to realise that the JV has put the DEPOSIT down for the leases but they havnt paid out the full amount just yet. If Ice 2V doesn't come up with the goods I dare say the JV may back out of at least some of the purchase, particularly the Burgundy acreage that 88E dont have the 30% option over. Don't forget there are still the conventional leads that I think go into some of the new JV acreage. But the extra acreage that PB has put Burgundy down for may not have decent conventional leads involved. It certainly looks that way from the stratigraphic trap fairways they have defined in the conventional annmnts. I could be wrong tho re any further conventional. Much of this is being done from my memory of the annmnt diagrams.
All this being said, we know that PB and SS have an exceedingly good understanding of this North Slope Basin petroleum system from seismics, cores and previous Geo studies such a Ken Birds who btw had the North Slope down as containing 77 Billion bbls of oil equivalent (Bird 1994) from an initial total hydrocarbon generating system over the millennia of 8 TRILLION bbls.
As a result the 77 Billion bbls is the 1% estimate of the remaining oil CONTAINED IN RESERVOIRS. He also maintains there is still another 1%, or another 80 BILLION bbls contained within other reservoir types and I think we can confidently assume the HRZ and our potential conventional leads hold a significant portion of this given we now hold a very significant % of the slope.
As Laz mentioned in a recent post I was more than likely understating the potential of the OIP over the new acreage at around 4 Billion bbls given these Ken Bird numbers and the recent reconfirmation of the Geologic Societies ORIGINAL estimates by recent conventional discoveries to the North West, as well as the continuing results from Icewine, and the trending well results that PB has utilized to firm up his sweetspot model.
All in all there should be a crap load of oil down there and given the numbers involved its certainly worth the PUNT to see if we can remove even a small % of that oil. And as PB says, that's an awfully big number anyway !!!
d.
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