Bit of expectation management in front of this ann and sure...

Bit of expectation management in front of this ann and sure enough:

Material declines from Commanche#2. This had to be a significant and is a continuing possibility. Produced at average 225 boepd for the first 19 days` and an average 121 boepd for subsequent 39 days`to the present. The current production rate would be useful in making our own guesstimates of where this might settle down. This was not given and will ask for it.

Now multiple wells (not 40-50) in northern section only - this is a disappointment as the scale of the field and the resource is diminished.

Not the Company-maker hoped for but not a disaster either. Even if flow rates stabilise at Fisherwoman`s 5 boepd net to OTE after payout these wells are commercial and could be long-lived with drill/completion techniques for the remaining wells yet to be optimised. However if declines turn out that bad they will be better off with Charro getting 40% of production for 10% of the drill cost.

After 2nd Charro well and third well at Commanche long-term production revenues look safely in excess of $1.5m p.a. with no debt. Given potential from Commanche roll-out and the highly-prospective Avalanche market cap of less than $3.5m seems to have all this gloom already priced in and will hold as may yet surprise to the upside.