Thanks Fisherwoman - the CEO came back to me almost immediately yesterday re. my concerns based on past onshore experience of steep initial declines. He seems decent approachable and - more importantly - highly competent.
No use giving spot production figures as these are variable but was advised to refer to the ann with the implication that this variation remains either side of an average of 155 boepd a month in. So at the moment OTE looks to be getting over 19 boepd from #2 at the initial 12.5% NRI and hopefully production from #1 is coming up to meet it. My own (NOT the CEO`s) guess is that after further declines in production and NRI after payout OTE will still get long-term 10 boepd from Commanche wells.
They have no lack of faith in this field and were going straight on with a third well in November but have held off only for a specialist technical review of all aspects of the field and how best to drill it so that they can optimise future wells. This would not be worthwhile unless a number of further wells were planned.
The CEO used the analogy of building a house brick by brick - even 2 barrels a time from Charro adds up over long production profiles.
The delay at Commanche may be frustrating but it has a couple of advantages beyond a better understanding of the field and completion techniques. If the specialists` fees don`t take all the revenue coffers can be replenished for drill # 3 and by January we should all be more confident in likely well performance whether they have to come to us for money or not.
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Thanks Fisherwoman - the CEO came back to me almost immediately...
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