I'm pretty sure that all lithium plays are following the...

I'm pretty sure that all lithium plays are following the carbonate price in China, and it's dropping steeply and quickly. https://cnevpost.com/2023/03/20/lithium-prices-biggest-drop-this-year/

It seems that the Chinese are hell bent on bringing the carbonate price down to 200,000 RMB per tonne, it's currently around the 300,000 RMB mark. The carbonate price may not be relevant to GL1 and the Australian spodumene producers but it has an impact on all lithium prices. Can they bring the price down another 33% and keep it there? I suspect that the Chinese battery and EV manufacturers will collude to ensure that they achieve this goal through controlled buying and re-stocking. The Chinese will get their way until there is significantly increased demand from the US and Europe, but battery factories in the US and Europe are still a couple of years away from the manufacturing phase.

If GL1 is looking to enter production for 2026 it would coincide with western factories ramping up, but any capital raising would occur during what potentially is shaping up as a couple of lean years share price wise. From recollection, GL1 used US$2,500 tonne sale price for the concentrate as the basis for determining if the mine is financially viable, which is about 30% of the highs last year. The 200,000 RMB is about 30% of the carbonate high price in 2022, so GL1's mine is still viable at these low lithium prices. It may not have the highest grade or the lowest mining cost, but it is still viable. If I were to compare it to the iron ore space, it's probably equivalent to FMG's lower grade ores when it started compared to what Rio and BHP were digging up, and FMG has managed to remain viable and profitable over the last couple of decades even during iron ore price slumps.

I suspect the reason CATL has offered its customers the 200,000RMB price for 3 years is because it doesn't think it will be able to control the lithium prices beyond 2026, as at about that time China will lose the stranglehold it has on battery production.

This is my opinion only based on what I think is happening around the EV market. I closely follow EV news to see what EVs are coming to market and developments in the battery space. One thing I do know is how few people are aware that an EV only has about 6 to 10 kgs of lithium in battery packs (60kwh to 100kwh), out of the total 500 to 750 kgs that battery packs weigh. The price of lithium isn't what makes EVs unaffordable, ternary lithium (lithium ion) batteries which have cobalt, nickel and manganese in addition to the lithium are what makes them expensive. Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries (LFP) make EVs affordable because they don't use nickel, cobalt and manganese - but they still use lithium. Of course, some half informed vloggers such as the Electric Viking keep carping on about the lithium price being the problem, but apparently he can't see the lithium content when he talks about LFP batteries being the affordable future. There is talk of sodium replacing lithium in EVs but given its low energy density and resultant heavy weight/low range, it's a niche product for low price vehicles or stationary storage. I'd like to think that lithium sulphur batteries will make it to market in the next 4 to 5 years as these offer 2 to 3 times energy density improvement to current batteries and at a greatly reduced price. These use a lithium metal anode, so lithium demand should remain high. Hopefully US companies such as Zeta Energy, Lyten and Nextech which claim to have started small scale production as the first step to mega scale production from 2027.