Well if you believe some of the Chinese battery makers, lithium...

Well if you believe some of the Chinese battery makers, lithium is going to fall a lot more from where it is now https://cnevpost.com/2023/04/03/lithium-carbonate-likely-to-fall-below-rmb-100000-says-chairman-of-farasis/. They keep referring to the carbonate price which is irrelevant to GL1, but the falling carbonate price will have a flow on effect.

I would be surprised if the carbonate fell to this price because CATL has been signing up Chinese EV makers onto 3 year deals where CATL is charging them (NIO, Xpeng et al) battery prices set on a RMB 200,000 price. I suspect those manufacturers would be pretty unhappy with paying a premium for the carbonate should the carbonate price drop to the 100,000 level. Analysts in China have suggested RMB200,000 for carbonate so it seems to be the mainstream view in China for the carbonate price https://cnevpost.com/2023/03/30/analysts-how-falling-lithium-carbonate-affect-ev-costs/.

It seems that the Chinese will do whatever they have to do in order for the lithium price to come down as it potentially brings profitability to their loss making EV makers. I think the carbonate price will fall to the RMB200,000 this week and then probably hold around there. The 100,000 figure touted in the top link is probably a rogue thought from a sodium battery maker. If the lithium carbonate falls to the price he's indicated then it would make sodium batteries less attractive in terms of cost per kWh, so he should be careful what he wishes for. Carbonate at that price would also put the brakes on lithium
exploration which will have consequences for supply a few years down the track.

Ultimately, the true global lithium price won't be found for a few years until the Americans and Europeans start getting battery factories producing. With China currently controlling 80% of battery production, it holds the upper hand on lithium prices. Fortunately by the time GL1 comes on stream, the rest of the world will be competing with China for lithium.