Glass half-empty view ...., page-6

This is really starting to pan out as the start of much much bigger stuff.

From memory, the company was looking at 50 to 60,000 t per month ramping up to around 1 mtpa.

At $15 /t ebitd, thats around $900,000/ month ramping up to $1.5m/month. At $20/t it is 25% better.

On an annualised basis @ 1mtpa we are looking at $18m to $20m from Tas for the life of the project.

Thats about .12c to .14c pa /share from Tassie so the prospect of early dividends and share price growth are very real.

The next step then is Binjour which again from memory, requires capex of circa $100m.

The question is, how will Binjour be funded. CR or debt funding?

Obviously a CR would be done at a higher SP but brings massive dilution. The alternative of debt may be a better path as it ensures that earnings pay down the debt without dilution.

The company has stated a target of 5mt/pa after starting up Binjour. At the same $A margin of $20/t, we get to around $100,000,000pa.

And then there is Goulburn.

These are all back of envelope calculations and are based roughly on information released by the company and require that $20/t margin. Happy to be corrected about figures.

IMO, the long term for this company is outstanding provided that:

a) they meet their targets,
b) long term demand remains strong, and
c) the margin remains viable.

It seems that longer term, we will see significant growth that leads to a much higher SP and a dividend stream.

All IMO of course

cheers

M1