glass half full

Looks like one of the few "Glass half full" investors left. My thoughts are:

FINANCIAL POSITION

Assets = $408m
Liabilities = $279m (incl. Sedco liability)
Net assets = $129m (Auditors + Directors signing off this month so asset values need to be sufficiently supported (I do note however the clause on pg9 of 1H14 accounts re: values are based on being a going concern)

This net asset figure would be ~$140m higher if accumulated tax losses could be utilised by a potential acquirer.


BIDS/RUMORS TO DATE

--> Rumors in paper of previous offers of ~$175m for Crux

--> Strategic review announcement (20/2/14) where the following was stated:

CRUX

1 party offered however below market offer (keep in mind that this is unlikely to be Shell or Conoco Phillips as stated in 13/2/14 announcement unless contacting NXS between this date and 20/2/14 which is unlikely)

1 interested party currently engaged with

LT

1 interested party currently engaged with however no binding proposal

NXS (whole of company)

Highly conditional non-binding proposal since terminated (keep in mind the Sedco liability has since been negotiated therefore given more certainty for the party to re-engage)

Keep in mind that this is unlikely to be Seven given Voelte resigned just 2 days before this announcement i.e. 18/2/14 and if this isn't the case, I would be asking some questions re: governance

--> Recent announcement stating NXS in talks with Seven for which the paper is suggesting $200m EV offer.

Again to summarise:

CRUX --> 4 potential interested parties
LT --> 1 interest party
NXS --> 2 potential interest parties

Further to this, NXS are still negotiating with BOA/ML and Nomura re: debt facility

Keep in mind that if Seven was to increase their "reported offer" by 20% i.e. to $240m, this would equate to >5c per share.

WHY WOULD SEVEN DO THIS

Clearly we are relying on Directors and/or an independent expert report stating that 2c per share offer is reasonable and that shareholders should accept this offer. However given the above points, I seriously struggle to see this as being possible and a higher offer would need to be made.

If the share price on 2 April hits 2c, I'll definitely be a buyer