Looks like one of the few "Glass half full" investors left. My thoughts are:
FINANCIAL POSITION
Assets = $408m
Liabilities = $279m (incl. Sedco liability)
Net assets = $129m (Auditors + Directors signing off this month so asset values need to be sufficiently supported (I do note however the clause on pg9 of 1H14 accounts re: values are based on being a going concern)
This net asset figure would be ~$140m higher if accumulated tax losses could be utilised by a potential acquirer.
BIDS/RUMORS TO DATE
--> Rumors in paper of previous offers of ~$175m for Crux
--> Strategic review announcement (20/2/14) where the following was stated:
CRUX
1 party offered however below market offer (keep in mind that this is unlikely to be Shell or Conoco Phillips as stated in 13/2/14 announcement unless contacting NXS between this date and 20/2/14 which is unlikely)
1 interested party currently engaged with
LT
1 interested party currently engaged with however no binding proposal
NXS (whole of company)
Highly conditional non-binding proposal since terminated (keep in mind the Sedco liability has since been negotiated therefore given more certainty for the party to re-engage)
Keep in mind that this is unlikely to be Seven given Voelte resigned just 2 days before this announcement i.e. 18/2/14 and if this isn't the case, I would be asking some questions re: governance
--> Recent announcement stating NXS in talks with Seven for which the paper is suggesting $200m EV offer.
Again to summarise:
CRUX --> 4 potential interested parties
LT --> 1 interest party
NXS --> 2 potential interest parties
Further to this, NXS are still negotiating with BOA/ML and Nomura re: debt facility
Keep in mind that if Seven was to increase their "reported offer" by 20% i.e. to $240m, this would equate to >5c per share.
WHY WOULD SEVEN DO THIS
Clearly we are relying on Directors and/or an independent expert report stating that 2c per share offer is reasonable and that shareholders should accept this offer. However given the above points, I seriously struggle to see this as being possible and a higher offer would need to be made.
If the share price on 2 April hits 2c, I'll definitely be a buyer
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Last
20.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $58.43M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
19.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 19.0¢ | $2.208K | 11.54K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 97393 | 19.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
20.0¢ | 35987 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 97393 | 0.195 |
3 | 94225 | 0.190 |
1 | 54000 | 0.185 |
6 | 85413 | 0.180 |
2 | 21000 | 0.170 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.200 | 35987 | 2 |
0.205 | 15000 | 1 |
0.220 | 36214 | 1 |
0.225 | 4444 | 1 |
0.240 | 12000 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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