Matt WarderGMCoal Traders! Premium hard coking coal prices...

Matt WarderGMCoal Traders! Premium hard coking coal prices posted modest gains over the pasttwo days, buoyed by limited availability of Australian prime coals —particularly premium mid-vol (PMV) grades — even as spot market activityremained subdued. The Argus-assessed Australian premium low-volatile (PLV) hardcoking coal price rose by $2.45/t on 28 May, followed by a further 10¢/t uptickon 29 May, to settle at $194/t fob Australia. The tier-two fob price recoveredto $148.55/t, after a brief dip. Supply-side constraints, especially for PMVcoals, continued to underpin sentiment. Sellers held firm on offer levels, withtradeable PLV fob cargoes cited around $195–196/t. One Indian buyer notedearly-stage discussions with a Chinese mining firm to explore new supplychannels, which we found particularly curious. Despite the improvement inphysical pricing, however, SGX futures showed broad weakness today. Thefront-month June contract (U7M25) fell $1.00/t to $187.00, while July (U7N25)dropped $1.50/t to $183.00. Most contracts through Q4 2025 posted $1–2/tlosses, and 2026-dated contracts retreated by as much as $3/t to $207.00 acrossthe board. Trade volumes were concentrated in near-term contracts, with 60 lotsin June and 150 lots in July. Further down the curve, open interest was thin,and activity tapered off. CFR pricing diverged across regions. In India,premium hard coking coal slipped by 20¢ to $206.95/t, while second-tiermaterial eased by 10¢ to $161.50/t. China saw steeper declines, with PLV down55¢ to $163.60/t and second-tier coals falling 30¢ to $145.95/t. The disparityreflects China’s continued reliance on lower-cost domestic coal and persistentpressure on coke prices, while Indian buyers remain largely inactive ahead ofthe monsoon. In China, domestic coal remains dominant amid weak steel margins.PMV portside offers hovered at ¥1,200–1,280/t, though buyers are bidding wellbelow those levels. A second ¥50–55/t round of met coke price cuts was acceptedby mills this week, and expectations of further reductions persist. Canadiancoal has drawn some attention, with surprisingly mixed sentiment on quality.While some noted clumping issues due to weather, others praised its blendperformance. At $10/t below Australian PMVs with costs to support and a tradinghouse for a parent company, Canadian coals remain an attractive substitute forflexible buyers. Russian high-volatile coal - which US HVA producers need tostart paying close attention to - came under renewed pressure as theArgus-assessed price fell $2.50/t to $89.40/t fob Vostochny. GZh-grade coal wasquoted at $100–102/t cfr China, and an estimated $120–124/t cfr India, thoughno trades were reported. Indian buyers remained inactive amid the monsoon andweak domestic steel conditions, while Chinese mills also favored domesticcoals, further sidelining Russian material. -MW