I see your point.
But the simplest and most efficient way for China to secure Sundance (I am a firm believer that China CANNOT afford to and WILL NOT let Sundance slip away) is to declare the SOE buddy alliance before the 26th and produce the CDB TS on the 26th for the 45c a pop transaction.
Han-Long can't be fobbed off as it were because the FIRB approval was granted to HanLong on the basis of the assessed SIA. Otherwise, the whole thing starts from square one. Using a SOE as the bidder may result in FIRB push back (or stalling).
The above scenario is not good for China (hence no-show snub) as soon after the CBD term sheet is produced, they may need to produce another or (or even more) to outbid any counters.
For this reason, I think the SOE buddy news may even be announced this week.
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