GLN TA Thread

Plenty of froth in lithium markets of late and GLN has met the positive moves with positive news so thought I'd start up a new TA thread to seperate technical commentary for the chart enthusiasts out there.

I'll start with ALB - for those that don't know why I reference ALB a lot its because it's the leader amongst lit players on US exchanges and the rest of lit players (large and small) tend to follow the leader.

ALB had a pretty decent sell off since Dec 24', wiping out over 50% into April 25' lows where it found a base.

You can see instos were loving the lower consolidation zone where they hit ALB hard with many outsized prints, including the 4th largest trade of all time (which is the largest trade in the past 12mths)

Since breaking away from that lower consolidation the sp has managed to break a few important levels - with the largest level of all time being one of them. Still not out of the woods as $93 looks to be strong resistance but the ST trend is up and no point fighting trends.
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As a bonus I've also added LIT insto positioning below - turns out that #1 (largest trade off all time) was a very good buy in...
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I've seen plenty of commentary on GLN management and how poor they've handled things and admittedly there are probably a number of things they could have handled better. However, the sector was getting flogged and GLN just followed the sector.

If you're still not convinced then check out the chart below with ALB (blue) and GLN (yellow).
For those that were constantly bitching about GLNs movements you wasted a lot of energy on something completely out of managements hands.
Sectors run hot and sectors run cold. If you want to be on the right side of things then put your energy into studying commodity cycles instead of bitching...

ALB vs GLN 12mths
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I was critical over the botched CR for retail when they let the sp slip well below raise price - which in turn meant they barely raised anything.
Shortly after the failed CR there was the ann regarding the $20M Clean Elements placement. This placement obviously gives GLN the funds to progress forward but will also increase SOI, so in retrospect perhaps the 'botched' CR was a masterstroke from management as they managed to save further dilution from a double raise when one was plenty.

Now looking at GLN specifically and its clear there has been a very long consolidation down here - over a year.
The good news is if lithium has indeed found a base (along with GLN) then this incredibly long consolidation means the run higher should be an absolute cracker!!!

As frothy as GLN has looked of late it's still in that consolidation zone, so no need to get over excited but considering we are skirting the top of that range things are certainly looking positive.

16c is a level of resistance and we closed the week right on that level.
Break out from here and first heavy resistance is around 26c.

I mentioned a few weeks ago that 12c is the POC (point of control - aka most trade price) for this lower consolidation, so if we cannot break higher the odds of a test on 12c are high...

GLN Daily


GLN was on my radar for a very long time and I held off until I thought there was a trigger for lit to move back up again. I'm pretty happy to be in low 9's but reading the comments from lots of disgruntled holders who tend to think a company should be judged on if the sp is above their own buy in price is a bit silly.

What seemed to be very negative and very random sp moves were actually textbook book accumulation patterns.
If you're a student of the market you'd be familiar with Wyckoff Theory.

Below is Wyckoff Accumulation illustration then below that is GLNs trading patterns.

See any similarities???
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And if you were one of the unfortunate holders that exited on the lows then don't beat yourself up. The trade patterns used are designed to trick even the smartest traders. Put it down as a lesson and be better next time.

So what's next for GLN?

Honestly I have no idea.

I'd love for the Wyckoff 'Phase E' to play out from here but there the Clean Elements raise may act as a bit of a handbrake in the ST.

I'd also love to be pleasantly surprised by a renegotiated raise or better yet a hefty TO offer but it is the stock market so it's always good to hope for the best but plan for the worst.

That's it from me, so be sure to always DYOR and good luck whichever way you trade...