IMO, those 145 million EVs on the road by 2030 (8.5 years) is wishful thinking
given our current global economic climate.
About 93 million vehicles in total were produced in 2019 & 78 million in 2020 due to Covid.
IMO the 2021 total will be about the same as 2020 because of Covid and the shortage
of auto electronic chips (this shortage has caused a shortage of supply in Aus for the past 3 months
and will likely last at least another 3, IMO.
https://www.acea.be/statistics/article/world-production
So lets have a reasonable look at the phase -in transition rate to Evs.
We have a target of 145 million vehicles for 8.5 years from above.
We have about 11 million EV's on the road now so
by simple arithmetic we'd need an extra 15.75 million Evs
hitting the road per year on average until 2030
Say last year 3 million Evs were produced .
To hit the 145 mil target means that if there is a consistent growth
of Evs that production would have to hit 12 million by late 2025
an overall growth of 400%during that period . Perhaps China can achieve its share of that
but IMO Western car makers are strapped for cash due to the
crash in the overall market from 93 million to 78 million vehicles
in one year alone (-16%) with the same medicine in prospect
until at least 2023. then they wont have the capital to scale up
EV production at the required rate, IMO.
Also EVs sales are greatly driven by government subsidies &
tax concessions and with Covid driving most government
budgets deep in the red, there will be more urgent Government holes
to fill with taxpayers funds that throwing it at EVs which at present
are mostly transport for the middle classes.
So in summary the 145 million target is over optimistic IMO
given a world in recession due to Covid, automakers strapped for
cash due to the sudden contraction of the market size and
Government lollies likely go to those in dire need rather
than subsidise a new set of wheels for the middle class.
I realise that the above forecast was issued by mining.com
so I'd suggest that there may be slightly influenced by
a future hip pocket returns (more spruik than science, IMO)
All IMO only and investors should always consult a licensed financial
planner before making any investment decision
MM
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Global EV vehicles 145m by 2030.
Global EV vehicles 145m by 2030., page-2
- There are more pages in this discussion • 3 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)