What the scientists say on Water Vapour, Clouds & Carbon Dioxide
Water Vapour atmospheric concentration average = 10.000 ppmv Carbon Dioxide atmospheric concentration average = 390 ppmv
Hungary - Dr. Miklos Zagoni (physicist and environmental researcher) Once Hungary�s most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol, reversed his view and is now a skeptic.
�To put it in a language that IPCC will understand: Extra CO2 does not result in extra 'radiative forcing' in the final account, as the energy constraint rules it back to its equilibrium value. Nature's regulatory instrument is water vapor: more carbon dioxide leads to less moisture in the air, keeping the overall GHG content in accord with the necessary balance conditions. So, contrary to the common wisdom, there is no positive H2O-temperature feedback on global scale: in Earth-type atmospheres uncontrolled runaway warming is not possible.� ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Theodore G. Pavlopoulos (Physicist and Chemist) U.S. Navy, Retired - a member of the New York Academy of Sciences.
�CO2 is a rather harmless greenhouse gas.�
�CO2 in air has been branded as the culprit for causing the green house effect, causing global warming. However, regularly omitted is another important green house gas also present in air and in much higher concentration. It is water vapor. In the air, it absorbs infrared radiation (heat) more strongly than CO2. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is considerably lower than that of water vapor; it is just a few percent. Consequently, doubling the CO2 concentration would not significantly increase the combined absorption of the two greenhouse gases of water vapor and CO2.� ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New Zealand - Professor Geoffrey G. Duffy, in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland:
"Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.". --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Australia & USA - Dr. David Stockwell (Ecological Modeler) who has published research articles on climate change in international journals, author of a 2006 book on �niche modeling�. After receiving his Ph.D. degree in Ecosystem Dynamics from the Australian National University in 1992, he worked as a consultant until moving to the San Diego Supercomputer Center at University of California San Diego in 1997. There he continued his work developing computational and data intensive methods of ecological niche modelling using museum collections data.
�The increase in temperature due to the greenhouse effect has a maximum. At this maximum, additional greenhouse gas absorbers do not increase the temperature to the limits detectable in this setup.�
�Two claims made in the IPCC Chapter 3 Section 3.4 p40 of WG1 are obviously false.� ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Russia - Dr. Oleg Sorochtin of the Institute of Oceanology at the Russian Academy of Sciences has authored more than 300 studies, nine books, and a 2006 paper titled "The Evolution and the Prediction of Global Climate Changes on Earth."
"Even if the concentration of greenhouse gases double, man would not perceive the temperature impact" --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Canada � Dr Tim Ball (Climatologist) climatology professor emeritus University of Winnipeg, President of the NRSP (PhD from London University)
Dr. Timothy Ball recently explained that one of the reasons climate models are failing is because they overestimate the warming effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. Ball described how CO2�s warming impact diminishes. �Even if CO2 concentration doubles or triples, the effect on temperature would be minimal. The relationship between temperature and CO2 is like painting a window black to block sunlight. The first coat blocks most of the light. Second and third coats reduce very little more. Current CO2 levels are like the first coat of black paint,� Ball explained.
Dr Ball also explains the phenomenon where cloudless summer skies in hot countries can allow extremely hot conditions in the daytime giving way to temperatures below freezing at night. This demonstrates the power of water vapour and cloud / absence of cloud, which is not compensated for to any great extent by the ever-present CO2 (CO2 currently 390 ppmv � water vapour: 10,000 ppmv). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- South Africa - Dr. Philip Lloyd, UN IPCC co-coordinating lead author, Nuclear Physicist and Chemical Engineer, and author of more than 150 refereed publications.
�The quantity of CO2 we produce is insignificant in terms of the natural circulation between air, water and soil. I am doing a detailed assessment of the UN IPCC reports and the Summaries for Policy Makers, identifying the way in which the Summaries have distorted the science.�
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Norway � Dr Tom Segalstad (Geologist & Geochemist) UN-PCC Expert Reviewer , a professor and head of the Geological Museum at the University of Oslo and formerly an expert reviewer with the UN IPCC:
"It is a search for a mythical CO2 sink to explain an immeasurable CO2 lifetime to fit a hypothetical CO2 computer model that purports to show that an impossible amount of fossil fuel burning is heating the atmosphere. It is all a fiction." ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USA � Dr Fred Singer (Climatologist) professor, founder of the US weather satellite programme. President of SEPP
As carbon dioxide increases, you would expect a warming. But at the same time that you get this slight warming, you get more evaporation from the ocean. That's inevitable. Everyone agrees with that. Now, what is the effect of this additional water vapor in the atmosphere? Will it enhance the warming, as the models now calculate? Or will it create clouds, which will reflect solar radiation and reduce the warming? Or will it do something else? You see, the clouds are not captured by the models. Models are not good enough to either depict clouds or to even discuss the creation of clouds in a proper way. So it's not possible at this time to be sure how much warming one will get from an increase in carbon dioxide.�
How can you distinguish a warming produced by CO2 from a warming produced by say the sun? This is the sort of issue that is not settled.� ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ UK - Professor Jonathan Tennyson, Head of the Atomic, Molecular, Optical & Positron Physics group at University College London (UCL) � NOT A DECLARED SCEPTIC nor to my knowledge involved in the AGW theory debate
�It is clear that the absorption of radiation by water vapour determines many characteristics of our atmosphere. While we would not try to provoke any worldwide movement that was aimed at suppressing water emissions, it would seem that the climatic role of water does not receive the general attention it deserves.� --------------------------------------------------------------------------- USA � Dr Roy Spencer (Climatologist & Meteorologist) � University of Alabama, Huntsville - Aqua Satellite project tem leader. He was formerly a leading meteorologist at NASA�s Marshall Space Flight Center, received NASA's Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal, Dr Spencer writes:
On his website, Dr Spencer explains why the Earth�s climate is quite insensitive to CO2 levels. He cites negative feedback through water vapour as giving rise to this insensitivity: "The one atmospheric process that has the greatest control on the Earth's climate is the one we understand the least - precipitation.�
"In fact, for the amount of solar energy available to it, our climate seems to have a �preferred' average temperature, damping out swings beyond one degree or so. I believe that, through various negative feedback mechanisms, the atmosphere �decides' how much of the available sunlight will be allowed in, how much greenhouse effect it will generate in response, and what the average temperature will be."
Data from the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites over the period 2000 � 2007 suggests strong negative cloud feedback. The discrepancy between the models and the observations was explained to be the result of the climate model developers not accounting for natural cloud variations causing temperature change in previous satellite studies. In simple terms, previous researchers have confused cause and effect when interpreting the co-variations between temperature and cloud cover. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Denmark � Dr Henrik Svensmark (Physicist) Head of the Centre for Solar-climate Research, Technical University of Denmark (DTU) lead author of a report newly published in Geophysical Research Letters
New research by the National Space Institute in the validated 13 years of discoveries points to a key role for cosmic rays in climate change. Billions of tons of water droplets vanish from the atmosphere in events that reveal in detail how the Sun and the stars control our everyday clouds. Cloud-chamber reactions prove his controversial idea that particles from faraway exploding stars can spark cloud formation in the Earth�s lower atmosphere. Svensmark has managed to make more that just clouds�his results are making quite a stir within the mainstream climate science community. �This phenomenon may be a significant factor in global warming,� he says. When cosmic rays react with the air, they form radioactive elements called isotopes.
By analyzing layers of these isotopes in tree rings or ocean sediment, scientists can piece together the amount of cosmic radiation that has reached the Earth over thousands of years.�
Ten years ago, Svensmark and his colleagues reported that this historical record of cosmic radiation correlated strongly with satellite data on the Earth�s cloud cover. This is a powerful climate determinate and affected by solar activity levels. This could explain why global temperatures correllate so closely with solar activity. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ USA � Dr Larry Vardiman (Atmospheric Scientist) Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri
Evidence is accumulating that cosmic rays associated with fluctuations in the sun's electromagnetic field may be what drives global warming. A new theory called cosmoclimatology that proposes a natural mechanism for climate fluctuations has been developed by Henrik Svensmark, Head of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at the Danish National Space Center.
