I agree there are some very tough times to come due to the interest rates and the state of the overall stock/RE markets are completely ridiculous in terms of valuations, but I don't think these retail businesses are the canary in the coal mine for recessions. I think the marketing industry is generally a very good forward indicator because major businesses tend to drop advertising at the first whiff of trouble in lieu of layoffs. I do happen to work freelance in marketing and the last couple of years have been extraordinarily strange and definitely seem troublesome, some people that have worked far longer in it (and at a higher level) have said there were some periods over last year worse than the GFC. Now we certainly haven't seen that traverse into mass layoffs and any kind of deflationary events we expect from a correction but I do think with the way asset prices are sitting there's some crazy things to come.
As for cheaper retail services like cafes, I know someone in that side of things and apparently that hasn't recovered to pre covid levels. This may also be indicative of changing habits through the pandemic.
These are strange times and they make it quite hard to invest but I very much like RFG at these valuations, will most likely buy more in the event of some kind of market crash but really depends what other bargains might be out there.
Interested to see the next half yearly.
RFG Price at posting:
6.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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