"I also don't believe you had to be a Warren Buffet to outperform the panic esp when the market was in the low 3,000s."
That's correct: it's extremely easy to achieve stellar returns when the market has hit a low and is on the way up...and fast. And similarly it's quite easy even to outperform the market - after all, you'd expect about half of us to outperform the market in any given year. But let's not compare ourselves to Mr Buffett flippantly: Buffett's success in stock picking has not come from beating the market since the market his its GFC low. No, Buffett's wealth and fame have come from his ability to consistently outperform the market over many decades, something which very, very few of us could expect to do. So like the 80% of drivers who purport to being "above average", it's very tempting for us all to consider ourselves especially wise and insightful investors simply because we have beaten the market this time around, but let's remember that the true arbiter of our investing talent is time. Only after many decades will we recognise who among us has been the most successful investor - and even then, our standings may be influenced by the vagaries of chance, and not just our intelligence or our willingness to "take the time to sift through a few companies".
Likewise, in response to glotch's questions about my earlier comments:
1. Yes, I absolutely believe that if James21 had sold his NAN at $0.20 and bought ARG at $7.35 then this would have turned out to be a good long-term call. Of course he may have regretted taking my advice in the short term, but certainly over the next few years, I would have no doubt that my advice will be vindicated. In any case, I have far more confidence holding ARG than NAN long-term, the former being a proven performer with stable franked dividends, frequent SPPs, and minimal administration expenses; and the latter being a company with a PE ratio of infinity.
2. I have done plenty of research into NAN and have little confidence in its technology. The rally in SP from $0.20 has been impressive, yes, but again this is pure speculation given the company's lack of profits thus far.
I will continue to keep an eye on NAN and this thread, and while I would be surprised if I have convinced any of you that indexing and LICs are the way to go, I nonetheless enjoy the hearty debate. Long may it continue!
