If there is only chance at play and no skill in the game then why play at all?
I believe the skill of winning over the 6 month period is selecting stocks which have the potential for major uplift over that period. For example they may have been particulary oversold at this point in time(e.g. ARR), or have a specific price catalyst event you predict there is a high probability of occuring within the time window (e.g. QHL)
The nature of the game lends itself to a gambling/odds type of hypothosis, rather than an pure investment one. Lucky for me thats the way i buy stocks anyway. ha ha.
With a braoder spread that more closely tracks the index your probabilty weighted chances of having the greatist short term return are less. Simple
