It wasn't analysis that led me to sell on Friday, but final capital protection following years of doing significant sums by investing in NMS - all the while believing it would triumph - (as it may still).
However, when the phrase "significant uncertainty whether it will continue as a going concern" is employed by auditors in their report, for any reason, I just can't get reassurance from a poster who buys on Friday and baldy states "From a purely analytical standpoint there is zero chance of NMS going into administration."
Likewise, I didn't get much reassurance from your reference to the OZL experience, given it was the miserable kernel saved by the acquisitive Chinese after ZFX unaccountably and incredibly blew a billion dollars in cash. The new CEO reckoned it wasn't his fault, the previous bloke had set up the deals. I reckon the previous bloke would have re-assessed and scuttled it, too.
Anyway that's another story. There have been many long-term NMS holders and sufferers, some of whom became more critical than I, but who felt sustained by a well-run company with an appealing good model in a growing sector.
This devestating comment by the auditors and the losses on the Pluto job and the CFO leaving made me feel my view that it was well-run was maybe just an ill-informed delusion.
If someone had posted that there was a significant uncertainty whether it will continue as a going concern, I would have thought that was a stupid comment, although some had expressed concerns in less dramatic terms.
When professionals paid by the company write those words, and you don't have the same level of access or knowledge, you've got to ask yourself "Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya punk?"
Well, when I asked myself that on Friday, the truth is I found it impossible to feel lucky when I reviewed the size of my capital losses on this to date and what I had left.
I'll be happy to see the ship right itself and feel a tinge of regret and I agree that there is every chance her bad days are behind her, but sheesh, you'd want a substantial bit of good news before thinking there was zero chance of it failing.
The re-financing which should occur would be a start and take a fair bit of the "ultimate" risk out of it because banks don't really punt that much these days, and $15M can't be too hard for them to secure in a company of this size, but I am philosophical enough to be satisfied with scurrying off with a little capital left - a bit like OZL.
NMS Price at posting:
9.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
