re: energy near its peak? Ice sorry - missed all these & gotta run tonight so I can't address it all.
I had a target for oil of $60-65. I also have developed a healthy disrespect for all economists who explain recent trends and extend them into the future and come up with reasons why. After 14 years trading rates, currencies and commodities there were very few who could ever tell me what was going to happen but thousands who could tell me what did and why. In the end most prices adjust in advance of demand/supply imbalances usually at the hands of speculators and this price adjustment the fixes the imbalance by causing producers to make/drill/explore if prices have risen and consumers to consume more if prices have fallen. I think NEO is onto something but I believe the energy sector is around its sustainable level and that means stocks in it stabilise unless they find something. The beauty of NEO, FAR, NDO etc was the were stocks that might have something or do have something but we don't know what it is or need the funding to be in place etc BUT they are in the right sector so they move on sentiment. If for example an oiler can't get funding now with energy prices here then it is unlikely it is going to happen (unless prices make $70/barrel).
Sorry - I gotta go but you get my drift I hope - in short you have to be well away from a heated sector well before it turns on you - the turns are savage.
I was up 400k in dotcoms on the last day of March 2000. I sold everything between then and the 15th of April and walked away with 90k profit. No problem with the profit but if you think the sector is at risk it's better to be out (for me).
You'll laugh next week when I change my mind and BUY craploads . . . .
NEO
nuenco nl
