east coast farmers desparate for rain

Grain drain in east, but west is best

Jared Owens | August 24, 2009
The Australian

POOR rainfall could mean the NSW grain crop will fail this winter, but wheatgrowers on the other side of the continent are headed for one of the best harvests on record.

The same weather pattern - strong westerly winds - has sent the rain needed by NSW farmers in the last burst of the growing season across to their West Australian counterparts.

Releasing the NSW drought figures for the month yesterday, Primary Industries Minister Ian Macdonald painted a gloomy picture for farmers and consumers, with the dry weather likely to mean a severely reduced wheat crop.

"The western and southern Riverina crops are desperate for soaking rains," Mr Macdonald said.

"Rain in the next 10 to 14 days is absolutely critical for the state's farmers. Without it, some will be forced to consider turning livestock on to their crops, and not harvest a single paddock.

"If we get substantial shortfalls in production this year ... this could mean food prices over the Christmas period could be under some pressure."

This would be the latest in a series of poor winter harvests for NSW grain growers, who sowed five million hectares this year and produce more than a quarter of Australia's wheat.

The national wheat crop last year was 21.4 million tonnes, with NSW producing 6.8 million tonnes.

Mr Macdonald doubted the chance of rain in the coming weeks.

"The chance of exceeding median rainfall in August is 30 to 50 per cent across NSW," he said.

Meteorologist Don White of Weatherwatch said most grain farmers needed 25mm between now and October, but downplayed the chance of rain.

"Rainfall patterns are largely seasonal, and the outlook for the rest of spring is on the dry side."

He said the strong westerly winds since mid-June sent most of the rainfall over the west coasts of Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia.

In contrast to NSW, West Australian grain growers are benefiting from the phenomenon.

"Western Australia's crop outlook is improving by the day. We had a very wet August, and we're optimistically expecting to equal last years' crop of 8.9million tonnes - the third-largest on record," said WA Farmers' Grain Council president Derek Clauson.

"If we get a good finish to the season, we could produce in excess of 11 million tonnes."

Mr Clauson expressed solidarity with NSW producers.

"NSW farmers were expecting to have very good production, but to do that you need finishing rains," he said.

"We hoped NSW would get a break away from the past, but they've had a hard time."

The low rainfalls have crushed the spirits of many farmers who had an optimistic start to the season. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics last month forecast a bumper winter crop.

"I thought the drought might have ended around Easter this year, but it didn't happen that way," NSW Farmers Federation president Charlie Armstrong said yesterday.

The low rainfall has taken a toll on water catchments across the state.

Despite Sydney's Warragamba Dam reporting almost 60 per cent capacity last week, water storage across the state is only 26 per cent - 1.5 per cent less than the same time last year.

Official figures show that 63.9 per cent of the state is still in drought - only a 0.9 per cent improvement since August last year.

However, Mr White said the drought figures were determined more by politics than meteorology.

"If they took away drought subsidies, there would be too much political flak to deal with," he said.

Over the past seven years, the NSW government has pledged almost half a billion dollars in drought support.

Additional reporting: AAP

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