Good question Sharklit. Personally I still think there is some...

Good question Sharklit.

Personally I still think there is some upside from here. Looking at the stats for the S&P/ASX200 Healthcare sector (which you can find here: https://au.spindices.com/index-finder/) (you will need to select Geography=Australia and Sector=Healthcare and download the ASX200 factsheet), the average price to sales ratio is 2.71 while both price to cash flow and price to forward earnings are in the low 20s.

Given revenue of AUD116m this would suggest a market cap of 314m (i.e. 116*2.71). We don't know earnings, but if you assume a profit margin of between 10% and 20% on revenue then this would suggest between $11.6 and $23.2m in earnings/cash flow (by way of comparison, the class C performance rights require a cumulative EBITDA of US$25m during the first 3 years). Applying a multiple of 20 gives an estimated market cap of between $232m and $464m (i.e. 20*10%*116m and 20*20%*116m respectively).

Assuming the remaining two sets of performance rights are triggered gives a fully diluted capital of 452m shares. Therefore, based on P/Sales, the market price would be $0.70 ($314/452). Based on P/E or P/C this would give a share price of between $0.51 and $1.02. Taking a mid-point of these 3 estimates would suggest a share price of around $0.75 which is over 70% higher than current.

This also does not take account of any future sales announcements which could push the price up towards the $1 mark.

@RodValens also did some good valuation work on this a month or so ago which is worth a look.

That's my views anyway. DYOR