So they are forecasting 11mio USD (AUD 15.5mio) revenue for 2020 (slide 24). As of the June 4C the company had produced 2.2mio USD of revenue YTD. So for the second half of the year thats 8.8mio USD of revenue or 4.4 mio per quarter - mostly back ended to Q4 i would argue. If they are doing 4.4mio USD per quarter or 1.466mio USD per month. Dividing that by $US200 per patient - thats 7,300 patients or there abouts per month they are monitoring. I assume this is without adding in the other 7 hospitals that are going into implementation currently.
Using the multiples they've given for the IPO and extrapolating 7300 patients per month for a full year,
at the higher multiple:
Now, the multiples dont look eyewatering against the other comps (except for BEAT) so should be achievable and does leave the stock with upside if patient numbers and other countries open up in the next 12months following the IPO.
Note: they are expecting NMPA approval this year (H2 2020) - Slide 22
Keep in mind that the ~25-30mio USD raised will significantly help growth over time, so it would be fair to say that next year could be very interesting if a few things happen. Namely:
- Onboarding more hospitals and potential expansion of IDTF facilities (through acquisition or greenfield sites)
- Increasing product sales through Guthy Renker
- NMPA approval and mass production of PRIZMA into China
- Expansion of services and products further into Europe and the UK
Could be a very very interesting 2021 for GMV
Good luck to all
