In times of uncertainty, one of the best ways to have some peace is to probably go back and reexamine again some of the fundamentals and dataNfacts. I personally ignored all other signed/not-signed/promised deals or memorandums (at this pre-IPO stage), and ONLY focus on GMV's US IDTF (GMEDx) development, its revenues (published in the Quarterlys and Annual reports) and its consistency since 2018. Below are just some snippets:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-four-us-university-hospitals-deploy-gmvs-idtf-platform.5504661/ Data: Patients monitored in the entire CY2019: 27946. (if deduct 23940 from Jan2019 to Oct2019, Nov2019+Dec2019 patients number was 4006.) Total CY2019 revenue from IDTF activities: US$5.42m From above we can get an approximate IDTF revenue per patient: US$5.42m/27946 = US$194 ~=US$200 The above figures are reassured again in the following pictures.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-ten-us-university-hospitals-now-deploying-idtf-platform.5574839/ Data: In several ANNs GMV says it is confident that it will meet three-fold increase in patient numbers by the end of CY2020. From the above graph, from Jan 2020 to July 2020 total patients monitored approximately: ~13100. To achieve the claimed three-fold increase which will be 27946 x 3 = 83838 say ~= 80000, Aug 2020 to Oct 2020 has to have a significant increase in patient numbers, and Nov2020 + Dec2020 also has to be way more than last year's number 4006. Based on above, i take a very conservative patient number figure for CY2020 instead of 80000, a two-fold of CY2019 which will be approximately 27946 x 2 ~= 56000.
I will still use my conservative patient number for CY2020: 56000, and average revenue per patient to be ~US$200. Therefore the total revenue of CY2020 from IDTF only will be: 56000 x US$200 ~= US$11.2m After consolidation: total SOI ~= 46.7m (excluding option conversion) + IPO 5,750,000 shares = 52.5m total plus options. Apply IPO price/revenue ratio: x10 -> MCap US$112m -> $112m/52.5m = US$2.13; (worst case scenario) x15 -> MCap US$168m -> $168m/52.5m = US$3.2 x20 -> MCap US$168m -> $168m/52.5m = US$4.3
If the claimed total patient numbers by the end of CY2020 are actually achieved, say 80000: Then the total revenue of CY2020 from IDTF only will be: 80000 x US$200 ~= US$16.0m Apply IPO price/revenue ratio: x10 -> MCap US$160m -> $112m/52.5m = US$3.0; x15 -> MCap US$240m -> $240m/52.5m = US$4.6; x20 -> MCap US$320m -> $320m/52.5m = US$6.0 (the targeting IPO price).
Anything beyond the estimated numbers above will all be extra extra bonuses.
Question to myself: Will these patient numbers reduce or disappear suddenly/dramatically after 2020 (like other disappeared old deals) as well as the revenues from IDTFs? The answer is a big NO.
So probably just give them a bit more time to sort things out. I am personally still at peace.
GMV Price at posting:
3.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held