In times of uncertainty, one of the best ways to have some peace is to probably go back and reexamine again some of the fundamentals and dataNfacts. I personally ignored all other signed/not-signed/promised deals or memorandums (at this pre-IPO stage), and ONLY focus on GMV's US IDTF (GMEDx) development, its revenues (published in the Quarterlys and Annual reports) and its consistency since 2018. Below are just some snippets:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-g-medical-continues-rapid-growth-in-usa.5131621/Data:Patients monitored in the entire CY2018:
10820.
Patients monitored in from Jan 2019 to Oct 2019:
23940. (when university hospitals were started to be involved.)
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-four-us-university-hospitals-deploy-gmvs-idtf-platform.5504661/Data:Patients monitored in the entire CY2019:
27946. (if deduct
23940 from Jan2019 to Oct2019,
Nov2019+Dec2019
patients number was 4006.)
Total CY2019 revenue from IDTF activities:
US$5.42mFrom above we can get an approximate
IDTF revenue per patient: US$5.42m/27946 = US$194
~=US$200The above figures are reassured again in the following pictures.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-update-on-continued-expansion-of-idtf-platform-in-usa.5517116/
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-ten-us-university-hospitals-now-deploying-idtf-platform.5574839/Data:In several ANNs GMV says it is confident that it will meet three-fold increase in patient numbers by the end of CY2020.
From the above graph, from Jan 2020 to July 2020 total patients monitored approximately: ~
13100.
To achieve the claimed three-fold increase which will be 27946 x 3 = 83838 say
~= 80000, Aug 2020 to Oct 2020 has to have a significant increase in patient numbers, and Nov2020 + Dec2020 also has to be way more than last year's number 4006.
Based on above, i take a very conservative patient number figure for CY2020 instead of 80000, a two-fold of CY2019 which will be
approximately
27946 x 2 ~= 56000.
Though the following Anns reassured the 3-fold increase:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-new-revenue-stream-added-to-idtf-platform.5585315/I will still use my conservative patient number for CY2020:
56000, and average revenue per patient to be
~US$200.
Therefore the total revenue of CY2020 from IDTF only will be:
56000 x US$200 ~= US$11.2m
After consolidation: total SOI ~= 46.7m (excluding option conversion) + IPO 5,750,000 shares =
52.5m total plus options.
Apply IPO price/revenue ratio:
x10 -> MCap US$112m -> $112m/52.5m =
US$2.13; (worst case scenario)
x15 -> MCap US$168m -> $168m/52.5m =
US$3.2x20 -> MCap US$168m -> $168m/52.5m =
US$4.3If the claimed total patient numbers by the end of CY2020 are actually achieved, say 80000:
Then
the total revenue of CY2020 from IDTF only will be:
80000 x US$200 ~= US$16.0m
Apply IPO price/revenue ratio:
x10 -> MCap US$160m -> $112m/52.5m =
US$3.0;
x15 -> MCap US$240m -> $240m/52.5m =
US$4.6;x20 -> MCap US$320m -> $320m/52.5m =
US$6.0 (the targeting IPO price).Anything beyond the estimated numbers above will all be extra extra bonuses.
Question to myself:
Will these patient numbers reduce or disappear suddenly/dramatically after 2020 (like other disappeared old deals) as well as the revenues from IDTFs? The answer is a big NO.
So probably just give them a bit more time to sort things out. I am personally still at peace.
